Listen. I get it. Why didn’t my favorite movie get nominated? How come they never nominate movies that people actually see? Why is every other camera shot a close-up of Meryl Streep?

These are a few of the most popular sentiments I hear come Oscars season (at least the first two are, anyway). The Academy Awards rarely ever act as a popularity contest. It’s perhaps the one place where the year’s biggest blockbusters feel like the quiet outsiders. Try to not let this anger you.

Your favorite bigger-budget sci-fi/action/adventure/thriller movies still get a seat at the table. Be it in the form of a technical award nomination (Star Wars, Blade Runner, Beauty and the Beast) or even in the occasional best picture nomination (Dunkirk, Get Out). Even if none of your 2017 favorites made the cut, the Academy Awards are still a chance to open up to some of the extraordinary smaller-scale films made in the past year—some of which you may even like. So relax, enjoy the show, appreciate the work that went into each film, and don’t throw your TV out the window when Logan doesn’t win best adapted screenplay.

Here’s my best guess at who takes home the golden statuettes this year, along with who perhaps should, and who was unjustly passed over.

Best Picture

•      Call Me by Your Name
•      Darkest Hour
•      Dunkirk
•      Get Out
•      Lady Bird
•      Phantom Thread
•      The Post
•      The Shape of Water
•      Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: The Shape of Water

Though this category appears first in the article, it’s the last one I attempted to guess. I was torn between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. I’m going with Water because I think the academy will gravitate more towards the weird-but-artful love story than the sharp-and-foul-mouthed revenge tale. Get Out still looms in the background, though, and it definitely has the frontrunners nervous.

Should Win: Call Me by Your Name

A beautifully adapted gay love story that probably didn’t get the studio promotion it so rightly deserved. Its raw depictions of love and the perils of intimacy are deeply affecting, and I’m still holding out the slightest sliver of hope that it’ll win in an upset that will have me happily declaring: “#OscarsSoGay.”

Snubbed: With one space left unfilled in the category, there are a number of films I would love to have seen in that spot. The Florida Project; I, Tonya; A Ghost Story; Mudbound; or even a comic book thriller like Wonder Woman (YES, Wonder Woman), to me, would all have been worthy of a best picture nomination.

Best Actor

•   Timothée Chalamet—Call Me by Your Name
•   Daniel Day-Lewis—Phantom Thread
•   Daniel Kaluuya—Get Out
•   Gary Oldman—Darkest Hour
•   Denzel Washington—Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Winner: Gary Oldman

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet

Oldman was tremendous as the iconic Winston Churchill, but Chalamet gave the performance of his young career in a role that demanded great delicacy, restraint, longing and subtlety. I, along with the masses of Stan Twitter, will be rooting for him.

Snubbed: Robert Pattinson—Good Time

Good Time, the story of a desperate man trying to break his developmentally disabled brother out of prison after a flubbed bank robbery, sees Pattinson unlike we’ve seen him before. He gave a performance that, alone, could forgive the entirety of the Twilight series.

Best Actress

•   Sally Hawkins—The Shape of Water
•   Frances McDormand—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
•   Margot Robbie—I, Tonya
•   Saoirse Ronan—Lady Bird
•   Meryl Streep—The Post

Winner: Frances McDormand

Should Win: Sally Hawkins

Sally Hawkins played a mute woman in The Shape of Water who falls in love with a fish dude being kept in a secret government facility. Hawkins not only eases you into the strangeness of this love story, but she sells it completely and beautifully.

Snubbed: Vicky Krieps—Phantom Thread

Vicky Krieps was totally game for the relationship power struggle in Phantom Thread. She would not let herself be controlled by Daniel Day-Lewis’ egotistic character, but rather, she became the puppeteer herself by masterfully manipulating his predictably self-centered tendencies. She even went so far as to poison his food, effectively rendering him dependent on her. Relationship goals? Maybe not so much, but she slayed her role regardless.

Best Supporting Actor

•   Willem Dafoe—The Florida Project
•   Woody Harrelson—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
•   Richard Jenkins—The Shape of Water
•   Christopher Plummer—All the Money in the World
•   Sam Rockwell—Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: Sam Rockwell

Should Win: Willem Dafoe

In The Florida Project, Dafoe plays a hard-nosed motel manager with a soft spot for the young children who reside there with their low-income families. The kids, so close yet so far away from the dream of Disney World, must create their own adventure which often involves them getting into trouble (spitting on cars, venturing into restricted areas, calling adults “ratchet b*****s”). Dafoe is stern, yet plays his role with the fundamental understanding that these kids are simply trying to be kids without access to playgrounds, amusement parks or any form of fun that requires money or transportation. The kids are the stars, but Dafoe bolsters their heartbreaking story.

Snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg—Call Me by Your Name

Stuhlbarg also gave great supporting performances in The Shape of Water and The Post this year, but his monologue toward the end of Call Me by Your Name, full of acceptance, regret and perhaps a subtle confession, left me sobbing into the pink sleeve of my favorite sweater.

Best Supporting Actress

•   Mary J. Blige—Mudbound
•   Allison Janney—I, Tonya
•   Lesley Manville—Phantom Thread
•   Laurie Metcalf—Lady Bird
•   Octavia Spencer—The Shape of Water

Winner: Allison Janney

Should Win: To me, this is the most competitive category of the year, and I’d be totally content if any of these women took home the award. There were, of course, others I was hoping to see here.

Snubbed: Rooney Mara broke my heart in A Ghost Story. Sylvia Hoeks brought vulnerability and insecurity to her steely replicant character in Blade Runner 2049. But maybe the most egregious absence in this category is that of Michelle Pfeiffer for her role in mother! Pfeiffer’s probing character could pierce a person’s most guarded, impenetrable emotions. She’s friendly but pushy, perceptive while oblivious, hilarious yet frightening. Don’t get on her bad side. For this category, I’d also accept the fish nuns from The Last Jedi.

Best Director

•   Christopher Nolan—Dunkirk
•   Jordan Peele—Get Out
•   Greta Gerwig—Lady Bird
•   Paul Thomas Anderson—Phantom Thread
•   Guillermo del Toro—The Shape of Water

Winner: Guillermo del Toro

Should Win: No issues here, although I also wouldn’t be upset if Jordan Peele or Greta Gerwig pulled off the upset.

Snubbed: Dee Rees directed a beauty with Mudbound, exploring the brutal realities of black life in the Jim Crow South. Denis Villeneuve managed to expand upon an already rich and poignant mythology with Blade Runner 2049, whose almost-3-hour running time felt not a minute overlong. Eliza Hittman also deserves credit for her portrait of the complex pathway a boy navigates while trying to come to terms with his sexuality in Beach Rats.

Best Original Screenplay

•   The Big Sick
•   Get Out
•   Lady Bird
•   The Shape of Water
•   Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: Get Out

Should Win: Get Out

Jordan Peele’s powerfully funny and scathing screenplay is exactly what America needed to be confronted with. It’s a biting script that I hope to see rewarded come March 4.

Best Adapted Screenplay

•   Call Me by Your Name
•   The Disaster Artist
•   Logan
•   Molly’s Game
•   Mudbound

Winner: Call Me by Your Name

Should Win: Call Me by Your Name

A bit of a surprise nomination for the violent superhero film Logan in this category, but Call Me by Your Name is looking like the heavy favorite, and I don’t see it losing to anybody—nor do I want to.

Best Cinematography

•   Blade Runner 2049
•   Darkest Hour
•   Dunkirk
•   Mudbound
•   The Shape of Water

Winner: Blade Runner 2049

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

This is Roger Deakins’ 14th Oscar nomination for cinematography. He has yet to win. The competition is admittedly stiff, but what Blade Runner 2049 does with color and scale is nothing short of stunning. It’s breathtaking sci-fi. I think this is the year.

Best Production Design

•   Beauty and the Beast
•   Blade Runner 2049
•   Darkest Hour
•   Dunkirk
•   The Shape of Water

Winner: The Shape of Water

Should Win: The Shape of Water

The world Sally Hawkins roams in The Shape of Water is detailed yet seamless in the way it immerses you in del Toro’s aquatic themes.

Best Musical Score

•   Dunkirk
•   Phantom Thread
•   The Shape of Water
•   Star Wars: The Last Jedi
•   Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: The Shape of Water

Should Win: The Shape of Water

John Williams’ mix of iconic themes and new material moved me on multiple occasions during The Last Jedi, but Alexandre Desplat created a score that captures the wonderful fluidity of The Shape of Water’s story, heightening its most emotional moments.

Best Makeup and Hair

•   Darkest Hour
•   Victoria & Abdul
•   Wonder

Winner: Darkest Hour

Should Win: Darkest Hour

Anyone who can do that to Gary Oldman deserves an award.

Best Animated Film

•   The Boss Baby
•   The Breadwinner
•   Coco
•   Ferdinand
•   Loving Vincent

Winner: Coco

I can’t comment too much on this one having not seen the majority of the animated films. However, I feel confident that Disney/Pixar secured a win for Coco. Also, who let The Boss Baby in the door?

Best Costume Design

•   Beauty and the Beast
•   Darkest Hour
•   Phantom Thread
•   The Shape of Water
•   Victoria & Abdul

Winner: Phantom Thread

Should Win: Phantom Thread

My justification:

Best Visual Effects

•   Blade Runner 2049
•   Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
•   Kong: Skull Island
•   Star Wars: The Last Jedi
•   War for the Planet of the Apes

Winner: Blade Runner 2049

Should Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

This isn’t to say that Blade Runner 2049 didn’t have some awe-inspiring visuals. I’d be happy if it won. But the rebooted Apes trilogy has continually been shut out from Oscar victory for their impeccable motion-capture primates. To have such a vital part of a film be computer generated while still feeling tangible brings the characters closer to human than they have ever been, and every intricate emotion is displayable and easily accepted by the audience. I’d like to see it get a win for the trilogy’s last outing.

Snubbed: Justice League’s mustache cover-up.

Just kidding…

Best Sound Editing

•   Baby Driver
•   Blade Runner 2049
•   Dunkirk
•   The Shape of Water
•   Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Winner: Dunkirk

Should Win: Dunkirk

Dunkirk’s sound effects were a huge part of making it the stunningly immersive terror that it was. It should pick up at least one win in the sound categories.

Best Sound Mixing

•   Baby Driver
•   Blade Runner 2049
•   Dunkirk
•   The Shape of Water
•   Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Winner: Dunkirk

Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

I think Dunkirk has a decent chance to sweep the sound categories, but Skywalker Sound has continued to be the gold standard for sound creation, editing, and mixing. The Last Jedi was no exception, although I fear its bold utilization of silence, however intimate it made the film, will detract from its chances at a win.

Best Editing

•   Baby Driver
•   Dunkirk
•   I, Tonya
•   The Shape of Water
•   Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Winner: Baby Driver

Should Win: Baby Driver

I’m all Baby Driver here. Top-notch chase sequences, quick and controlled pacing, and each movement synced perfectly to every beat. Dunkirk is the biggest threat, but its occasionally shifting aspect ratio removed me from the film few times. For that reason, Baby Driver gets the edge.

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