The 2022 U.S. midterms resulted in a new balance of power in Congress—Republicans control the House; Democrats control the Senate. But what does that mean? To answer that, it’s important to understand what each chamber has the power to do and what it controls. 

The House of Representatives is part of the federal government’s legislative branch that makes and passes federal laws. The fixed number of voting representatives in the House is 435—a number divided between the fifty states to proportionately represent each state’s population.  

Some of the powers assigned exclusively to the House include the power to initiate revenue bills, impeach federal officials, and to elect the President in the case of an Electoral College tie.  

The Senate is composed of 100 Senators—two for each state that are elected on a six-year cycle by public voters of the state. Senators’ terms are staggered so that about one third of the Senate is up for reelection every two years, hence the midterms. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., returns to the Capitol in Washington on the morning after Election Day and winning his campaign, Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

The Senate plays a significant role in the confirmation or denial of presidential appointments for judicial court justices and federal judges of the Supreme Court. These justices, specifically in the Supreme Court, have significant influence over cases and rulings—including the recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.  

Dr. Nicholas Seabrook described this midterm election as a bit of an anomaly in comparison to the first midterms in past presidential terms. Seabrook is the chair of the University of North Florida (UNF) Department of Political Science and Public Administration and teaches a variety of American government courses.

Historically, patterns show that the party of the presidency often does not do so well in midterm elections which result in a switch of power in Congress. In the first midterm under the Obama administration in 2010, Republicans won control of the House. Likewise, under Trump’s presidency in 2018, Democrats regained control of the House where they remained until now.  

What makes the 2022 midterms different from its predecessors is the lack of an overwhelming win by the opposition party. Despite winning control over the House, the number of Republican seats, 218, compared to Democrats, 210, is only a small majority of the total House seats. 

Seabrook explained that presidents typically enter office with general support and good will, but by the time midterm elections take place, voters’ opinions may shift depending on how the president has done in their first two years in office.  

“A president going into their midterm with a 45% approval rating and significant economic problems would be expected to lose seats,” Seabrook said.

 Despite those fundamentals, Democrats did fairly well—considering they remained in control of the Senate, which is the product of a few different factors. 

“Partly, it’s that the Republican party ran, especially in the Senate, a number of candidates who underperformed the fundamentals,” Seabrook said. “That’s why I think Democrats were able to keep the Senate in a year when otherwise we might expect them not to.” 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, of Calif., talks the media, Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022, after voting on top House Republican leadership positions, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is at right. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The House has substantial control over investigations; in 2011 the GOP launched an extensive investigation into the Obama administration and as did Democrats into the Trump administration when they controlled the House in 2018.  

As far as what this GOP will do in the next two years with their control of the House, Seabrook says it depends on who you believe. There has been talk from certain Republicans about potentially investigating and impeaching President Biden as well as investigating issues relating to the president’s son, Hunter Biden.  

“Perhaps if we were looking at a House where there was a larger Republican majority, they would maybe be more aggressive and scrutinizing of the Biden administration,” Seabrook said. “I’m sure there will be investigations, but perhaps not to the same extent of the same scope that we would have seen with a larger majority.” 

 Because the House has the power to pass or reject federal laws, when different parties control the presidency and the House, turmoil and disagreement often becomes inevitable.    

“There were certain things that the Biden administration were able to do for the last two years, legislatively, that they will not be able to do now,” Seabrook said. “They are going to have to get Republican votes to get any kind of legislation through Congress.” 

Seabrook explained this factor matters significantly when it comes to the debt ceiling and funding the federal government.  

“We’ve seen situations during the Trump administration and the Obama administration, that when you’ve had this divided government between the president and the House, it’s led to quite a bit of conflict in those areas,” Seabrook said. 

 He explained that with this new balance of power where the House is controlled by the opposition party, it’s likely that the House will use its subpoena power and the committee structure to try and scrutinize the White House from within Congress to a degree that doesn’t happen when the president’s party is in control. 

President Joe Biden smiles as he speaks about democratic control of the Senate before leaving his hotel to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, Seabrook explained it’s important not to read too much into midterm results to try and predict the subsequential presidential election because many factors play a role, including the state of the economy, Biden’s approval ratings and the 2024 presidential campaign.

Seabrook explained that one thing we can learn from this midterm is that a political party that is out of power is likely to do better when it nominates the kind of candidates that are broadly acceptable to Americans. 

“This was an opportunity that Republicans had that they somewhat squandered, at least in the Senate, by the choices they made in terms of who to nominate,” Seabrook said. “It wasn’t a red wave, but it was certainly a swing towards Republicans from what happened in 2020, pretty much across the board.” 

Certainly, the U.S. will feel the effects of a divided Congress, but it’s nothing new. The question remains; What will the GOP do with its newfound power in the House and how will those decisions impact the rest of Biden’s presidential term? 

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